{"id":973,"date":"2015-06-07T22:21:48","date_gmt":"2015-06-07T21:21:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/?p=973"},"modified":"2015-06-07T22:21:48","modified_gmt":"2015-06-07T21:21:48","slug":"prohra-bosenskeho-miru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/prohra-bosenskeho-miru\/","title":{"rendered":"Prohra bosensk\u00e9ho m\u00edru"},"content":{"rendered":"

13.9.1996<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jako samoz\u0159ejmost jsme p\u0159ijali to, \u017ee z Bosny p\u0159estaly doch\u00e1zet v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy. Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed operace I-FOR pod veden\u00edm alian\u010dn\u00edch sil dos\u00e1hla z\u0159eteln\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f.<\/p>\n

V pr\u016fb\u011bhu prvn\u00edch \u010dty\u0159 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f od za\u010d\u00e1tku operace byly spln\u011bny vojensk\u00e9 c\u00edle daytonsk\u00fdch dohod: byl zastaven otev\u0159en\u00fd konflikt, znep\u0159\u00e1telen\u00e9 strany byly odd\u011bleny z\u00f3nou separace, na n\u00ed\u017e dohl\u00ed\u017eej\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed jednotky.<\/p>\n

Prob\u011bhl proces demobilizace 150 000 bojovn\u00edk\u016f (co\u017e je dvakr\u00e1t v\u00edce ne\u017e m\u00e1 na\u0161e arm\u00e1da). T\u011b\u017ek\u00e1 v\u00fdzbroj byla odstavena a je pod kontrolou. Celkem 800 tank\u016f (A\u010cR m\u00e1 tank\u016f jen o n\u011bco v\u00edce), 1300 d\u011bl (A\u010cR m\u00e1 asi polovinu), 145 raketov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f ka\u0165u\u0161a, 3500 minomet\u016f se dostalo pod kontrolu. Na r\u016fzn\u00fdch m\u00edstech jsou obrovsk\u00e9 sklady ru\u010dn\u00edch zbran\u00ed. Objevil se i sklad utajen\u00fd p\u0159ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed ve\u0159ejnost\u00ed a byl zlikvidov\u00e1n. Prob\u00edh\u00e1 odminov\u00e1n\u00ed, o n\u011bm\u017e se p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee potrv\u00e1 a\u017e pades\u00e1t let.<\/p>\n

Druh\u00e1 p\u011btim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed f\u00e1ze m\u00e1 nastolit politick\u00fd re\u017eim, kter\u00fd by v\u00fdsledky prvn\u00ed f\u00e1ze potvrdil a stabilizoval je uskute\u010dn\u011bn\u00edm voleb. Po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 se s volebn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dast\u00ed v\u0161ech uprchl\u00edk\u016f a vyhnanc\u016f. Kon\u00e1n\u00ed voleb m\u00e1 i sv\u00e9 odp\u016frce. O to v\u00edc je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd dohled mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch pozorovatel\u016f na jejich regul\u00e9rnost a vojensk\u00e1 i policejn\u00ed ochrana pr\u016fb\u011bhu voleb. Z voleb vzejde nov\u00e1 politick\u00e1 reprezentace s pos\u00edlen\u00fdm mand\u00e1tem.<\/p>\n

Program hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 obnovy by m\u011bl motivovat nov\u00fd politick\u00fd syst\u00e9m k \u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9mu fungov\u00e1n\u00ed. Nov\u00e9 uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed mus\u00ed nab\u00edzet lep\u0161\u00ed alternativu, ne\u017e v\u00e1lka. Jde vlastn\u011b o obchod: hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 pomoc za m\u00edr. Do roku 2000 je t\u0159eba v r\u00e1mci pomoci investovat 5 miliard dolar\u016f, okam\u017eit\u011b je nutno poskytnout 1.2 miliardy.<\/p>\n

Investice do m\u00edru mus\u00ed zajistit obnovu m\u00edstn\u00ed samospr\u00e1vy, vytvo\u0159it prozat\u00edmn\u00ed m\u00edstn\u00ed rady, kter\u00e9 p\u0159evezmou s novou autoritou odpov\u011bdnost za prvn\u00ed kroky k rekonstrukci. Demobilizovan\u00fdm voj\u00e1k\u016fm mus\u00ed nab\u00eddnout pr\u00e1ci v prost\u0159ed\u00ed s t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 90% nezam\u011bstnanost\u00ed. Dv\u011bma mili\u00f3n\u016fm uprchl\u00edk\u016f mus\u00ed vytvo\u0159it podm\u00ednky pro n\u00e1vrat. Mus\u00ed u\u010dinit prvn\u00ed kroky ke stabilizaci majetkov\u00fdch vztah\u016f. Dob\u0159e v\u00edme, \u017ee p\u0159esuny obyvatelstva a vypo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed majetku mohou p\u016fsobit t\u011b\u017ekosti je\u0161t\u011b po mnoha letech. Obnova pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed bude doprov\u00e1zena transforma\u010dn\u00edmi procesy, ekonomickou reformou, privatizac\u00ed. Nen\u00ed vylou\u010deno, \u017ee by se daly vyu\u017e\u00edt i n\u011bkter\u00e9 na\u0161e zku\u0161enosti.<\/p>\n

P\u016fvodn\u00ed dohody sm\u011b\u0159ovaly k zachov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fazemn\u00ed celistvosti mezin\u00e1rodn\u011b uznan\u00e9 Bosny a Hercegoviny. Republika by m\u011bla sest\u00e1vat ze dvou \u00fatvar\u016f, muslimsko-chorvatsk\u00e9 Federace Bosny a Hercegoviny (51% \u00fazem\u00ed) a Republiky srbsk\u00e9 (49%). Jednotn\u00e1 Bosna by m\u011bla m\u00edt spole\u010dnou vl\u00e1du, p\u0159edsednictvo (kolektivn\u00edho prezidenta), dvoukomorov\u00fd parlament, \u00fastavn\u00ed soud, centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banku, spole\u010dnou m\u011bnu (prozat\u00edm je to n\u011bmeck\u00e1 marka). Je\u0161t\u011b pamatujeme svou zku\u0161enost s dvou\u010dlennou federac\u00ed, proto l\u00e9pe ne\u017e kdo jin\u00fd ch\u00e1peme, jak k\u0159ehk\u00e9 je st\u00e1topr\u00e1vn\u00ed uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed dvou\u010dlenn\u00e9 federace, z n\u00ed\u017e dokonce jeden \u010dlen m\u00e1 op\u011bt podobu dvou\u010dlenn\u00e9 federace. Pravd\u011bpodobnost p\u0159etrv\u00e1n\u00ed takov\u00e9ho \u00fatvaru je nepatrn\u00e1, zejm\u00e9na kdy\u017e separatistick\u00e9 tendence nach\u00e1zej\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e pochopen\u00ed u n\u011bkter\u00fdch politick\u00fdch sil v „mate\u0159sk\u00fdch“ st\u00e1tech etnick\u00fdch skupin.<\/p>\n

O zachov\u00e1n\u00ed multietnick\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu se doopravdy jednalo v dob\u011b, kdy mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed vyjednava\u010di navrhovali za z\u00e1klad spr\u00e1vn\u00edho \u010dlen\u011bn\u00ed etnicky pokud mo\u017eno homogenn\u00ed kantony. Nad\u011bje na udr\u017een\u00ed multietnick\u00e9 ob\u010dansk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti vyprch\u00e1v\u00e1. V\u00fdsledky v\u00e1lky, etnick\u00fdch \u010distek a p\u0159esun\u016f obyvatelstva jsou volbami v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b vzaty na v\u011bdom\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Do k\u0159ehk\u00e9 konstrukce bosensko-chorvatsk\u00e9 federace se prom\u00edtala chorvatsk\u00e1 idea Herceg-Bosny, kter\u00e1 m\u011bla u\u010dinit podivn\u00fd tvar chorvatsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu smyslupln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm. Bosen\u0161t\u00ed Srbov\u00e9 se netajili t\u00edm, \u017ee pro n\u011b st\u00e1topr\u00e1vn\u00ed uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed podle daytonsk\u00fdch dohod nen\u00ed atraktivn\u00ed. Na severu Bosny kolem Banja Luky ochotu k m\u00edru teprve uvid\u00edme. Ob\u011b srbsk\u00e9 enkl\u00e1vy jsou spojeny \u00fazk\u00fdm koridorem kolem Br\u010dka, kter\u00fd p\u0159il\u00e9h\u00e1 k nestabiln\u00edmu, i kdy\u017e prozat\u00edm zklidn\u011bn\u00e9mu v\u00fdchodn\u00edmu sektoru, V\u00fdchodn\u00ed Slavonii. Pro uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00e9to oblasti b\u011b\u017e\u00ed p\u011btilet\u00e1 lh\u016fta, tak\u017ee \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed se bude hledat a\u017e podle toho, jak se poda\u0159\u00ed naplnit daytonsk\u00e9 dohody.<\/p>\n

Nezodpov\u011bzen\u00fd z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 vztah bosensk\u00fdch entit k „mate\u0159sk\u00fdm“ st\u00e1t\u016fm. Mezin\u00e1rodn\u011b-pr\u00e1vn\u011b \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd takov\u00fd vztah neexistuje, ale fakticky m\u00e1 kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli. Daytonsk\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed proz\u00edrav\u011b vt\u00e1hla do hry politick\u00e9 p\u0159edstavitele obou „mate\u0159sk\u00fdch“ st\u00e1t\u016f a prozat\u00edm omezila jejich ochotu podporovat separatistick\u00e9 tendence. V silov\u00e9m poli z\u00e1jm\u016f nov\u00fdch sousedn\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f byla nejv\u00edce ohro\u017eena muslimsk\u00e1 komunita, kter\u00e1 si s tich\u00fdm p\u0159itak\u00e1n\u00edm sv\u011btov\u00e9 ve\u0159ejnosti na\u0161la mate\u0159skou podporu zejm\u00e9na v \u00cdr\u00e1nu, ale nejen tam. Proti konceptu velk\u00e9ho Srbska, velk\u00e9ho Chorvatska \u010di samostatn\u00e9ho muslimsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu vypad\u00e1 princip jednotn\u00e9 multietnick\u00e9 Bosny jako sentiment\u00e1ln\u00ed zahled\u011bn\u00ed do minulosti. V bosensk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce prohr\u00e1v\u00e1 ob\u010dansk\u00fd princip v konfrontaci s hrubou vojenskou silou a mocensk\u00fdmi z\u00e1jmy.<\/p>\n

Po volb\u00e1ch se bude muset zah\u00e1jit nov\u00e9 kolo jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed Bosny s nov\u011b zvolen\u00fdmi p\u0159edstaviteli. Dokud mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed tlak usiloval o jednotnou multietnickou Bosnu, pokusy o jej\u00ed udr\u017een\u00ed k m\u00edru nevedly. Nen\u00ed vylou\u010deno, \u017ee budeme st\u00e1t p\u0159ed ot\u00e1zkou, zda m\u016f\u017ee politicky rozd\u011blen\u00e1 Bosna p\u0159in\u00e9st trvalej\u0161\u00ed m\u00edr. Jakkoli by to byl tragick\u00fd m\u00edr, je ur\u010dit\u011b lep\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky. Selh\u00e1n\u00ed ob\u010dansk\u00e9ho principu v Bosn\u011b nelze d\u00e1vat za vinu \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9mu st\u00e1tu. Je to spole\u010dn\u00e1 prohra Evropy a n\u00e1s v\u0161ech.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13.9.1996 T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jako samoz\u0159ejmost jsme p\u0159ijali to, \u017ee z Bosny p\u0159estaly doch\u00e1zet v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy. Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed operace I-FOR pod veden\u00edm alian\u010dn\u00edch sil dos\u00e1hla z\u0159eteln\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f. V pr\u016fb\u011bhu prvn\u00edch \u010dty\u0159 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f od… \u010c\u00edst v\u00edce ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-clanky"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/973","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=973"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/973\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":974,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/973\/revisions\/974"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=973"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=973"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=973"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}