{"id":542,"date":"2015-05-08T05:23:09","date_gmt":"2015-05-08T04:23:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/?p=542"},"modified":"2015-05-08T05:23:09","modified_gmt":"2015-05-08T04:23:09","slug":"jeden-pohled-na-stredni-evropu-a-jeji-okoli","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/jeden-pohled-na-stredni-evropu-a-jeji-okoli\/","title":{"rendered":"Jeden pohled na st\u0159edn\u00ed Evropu a jej\u00ed okol\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ji\u0159\u00ed Payne\u00a03. 6. 1996<\/span><\/p>\n

St\u0159edoevropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b, nach\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed se tradi\u010dn\u011b ve zna\u010dn\u011b politicky neklidn\u00e9m prost\u0159ed\u00ed, hledaj\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed sv\u00fdch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f, \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u010dlenstv\u00ed v n\u011bkter\u00fdch organisac\u00edch. Hovo\u0159\u00ed se o nov\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektu\u0159e Evropy, ale definitivn\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b nen\u00ed na dohled. Pro\u010d?<\/p>\n

P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm existuje mnoho prom\u011bnliv\u00fdch prvk\u016f, utv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00edc\u00edch mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed kontext bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed st\u0159edn\u00ed Evropy.<\/p>\n

Prvn\u00edm nejist\u00fdm elementem je budouc\u00ed v\u00fdvoj v Rusku. Rusko se podle n\u011bkter\u00fdch m\u016f\u017ee vydat „cestou expansionismu“<\/em>, ale je tak\u00e9 mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee se „bude vyv\u00edjet zd\u00e1rn\u00fdm sm\u011brem“<\/em>. Je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee bude proti roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010dehokoli a znovu za\u010dne obnovovat sf\u00e9ry vlivu, nebo nov\u011bji oblast vit\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1jm\u016f. Je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee tak bude \u010dinit pouze s vyu\u017eit\u00edm politick\u00fdch a hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f a nepou\u017eije s\u00edlu. Av\u0161ak n\u011bkter\u00e9 aspekty rusk\u00e9ho peacekeepingu a dal\u0161\u00edch rusk\u00fdch aktivit mohou sv\u011bd\u010dit o opaku.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1pad p\u0159istupuje k Rusku s velkou trp\u011blivost\u00ed a velkorysost\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na s ohledem na to, aby nebyl po\u0161kozen rozvoj demokratick\u00fdch sil. Av\u0161ak jeden politick\u00fdch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f demokratick\u00fdch sil Grigorij Javlinskij se naopak vyj\u00e1d\u0159il, \u017ee „sv\u011bt je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 shov\u00edvav\u00fd p\u0159i hodnocen\u00ed v\u00fdvoje v Rusku“<\/em>.<\/p>\n

N\u011bkter\u00e9 st\u0159edoevropsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty si kladou ot\u00e1zku, zda by nemohl b\u00fdt Z\u00e1pad pon\u011bkud d\u016frazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159i prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed demokratick\u00fdch hodnot. Mo\u017en\u00e1 postr\u00e1d\u00e1 asertivn\u00ed reakci v situac\u00edch podobn\u00fdch tomu, kdy nap\u0159ed rusk\u00fd president Jelcin sl\u00edb\u00ed, \u017ee nebude m\u00edt nic proti roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed NATO a po n\u011bkolika m\u00e1lo dnech nap\u00ed\u0161e tajn\u00fd dopis, a jakoby na jeho\u017e z\u00e1klad\u011b je pozastaven p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdvoj a nastoup\u00ed obdob\u00ed uji\u0161\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee Rusko nem\u00e1 pr\u00e1vo veto.<\/p>\n

Druh\u00fdm prvkem nejistoty evropsk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektury jsou rozd\u00edln\u00e9 n\u00e1zory uvnit\u0159 NATO. V\u011bt\u0161ina zem\u00ed se shoduje v tom, \u017ee by m\u011blo doj\u00edt k n\u011bjak\u00e9mu roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed. M\u00e9n\u011b jasno je v tom, kter\u00e9 st\u00e1ty by m\u011bly b\u00fdt kandid\u00e1ty na \u010dlenstv\u00ed. Podle jedn\u011bch je t\u0159eba stanovit kriteria, jin\u00ed se pokou\u0161ej\u00ed napsat seznam kandid\u00e1t\u016f. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed zast\u00e1vaj\u00ed n\u00e1zor, \u017ee m\u00e1 b\u00fdt vytvo\u0159en \u010dasov\u00fd harmonogram pro p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00fdch \u010dlen\u016f do NATO. Podle jin\u00fdch o tom lze uva\u017eovat a\u017e po spln\u011bn\u00ed hlavn\u00edch podm\u00ednek – tedy a\u017e budou kandid\u00e1tsk\u00e9 zem\u011b a jejich arm\u00e1dy p\u0159ipraveny a a\u017e NATO bude p\u0159ipraveno a a\u017e nastanou je\u0161t\u011b jin\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9 okolnosti a a\u017e to bude nezbytn\u011b nutn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Jin\u00ed zase rozv\u00edjej\u00ed debatu na t\u00e9ma jak se to m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t. Jak zn\u00e1mo, v NATO jsou r\u016fzn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edklady forem \u010dlenstv\u00ed: zat\u00edmco Turecko je p\u0159edsunuto a\u017e do t\u011bsn\u00e9 bl\u00edzkosti rusk\u00fdch hranic, Francie je naopak zdr\u017eenliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a soust\u0159e\u010fuje svou pozornost na rozvoj Z\u00e1padoevropsk\u00e9 unie – ZEU. Oba zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 vystupuj\u00ed v mnoha ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch velmi samostatn\u011b. Jin\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem je Norsko, kter\u00e9 pat\u0159\u00ed k aktivn\u00edm \u010dlen\u016fm NATO a podporovatel\u016fm transatlantick\u00e9 vazby, av\u0161ak d\u011bn\u00ed v ZEU pouze „pozoruje“<\/em>. \u0160pan\u011blsko vstoupilo do NATO a pom\u011brn\u011b rychle prom\u011bnilo svou arm\u00e1du. N\u011bmecko zase nejprve po v\u00e1lce rozv\u00edjelo svou demokracii, n\u00e1sledn\u011b vstoupilo do NATO a teprve v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b uva\u017euje o nasazen\u00ed sv\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy mimo \u00fazem\u00ed vlastn\u00edho st\u00e1tu. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se nyn\u00ed vyrovn\u00e1v\u00e1 s n\u011bkter\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky slou\u010den\u00ed s b\u00fdvalou NDR. Jak\u00e9 pojet\u00ed \u010dlenstv\u00ed by bylo p\u0159ijateln\u00e9 pro \u010ceskou republiku.<\/p>\n

Jedin\u011b se znalost\u00ed formy \u010dlenstv\u00ed by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 stanovit i n\u00e1klady pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 na transformaci a dovybaven\u00ed arm\u00e1dy.<\/p>\n

T\u0159et\u00ed prom\u011bnnou budouc\u00edho uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed kontinentu je Evropsk\u00e1 Unie. Nev\u00edme, jak dopadnou jedn\u00e1n\u00ed na mezivl\u00e1dn\u00ed konferenci v roce 1996. Nev\u00edme jak bude potom vypadat vztah mezi EU a ZEU. P\u0159ed \u010dasem byl pops\u00e1n dokonce tzv. z\u00e1vazek zadn\u00edch dve\u0159\u00ed (bacdoor commitment). N\u011bkter\u00e9 zem\u011b by mohly kalkulovat s t\u00edm, \u017ee se stanou \u010dlenem ZEU a pak budou po\u017eadovat informace a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed garance od NATO, jeho\u017e \u010dinnost v\u0161ak nebudou financovat.<\/p>\n

Nejasn\u00e1 je i budoucnost KBSE. Zda se nalezne p\u0159ijateln\u00fd kompromis: na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b mezi rusk\u00fdm pojet\u00edm KBSE jako zast\u0159e\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed organisace, pod jej\u00ed\u017e st\u0159e\u0161n\u00ed organisaci by se m\u011blo pod\u0159\u00eddit NATO, v n\u00ed\u017e by podle rusk\u00fdch p\u0159edstav SNS p\u0159edstavovalo pil\u00ed\u0159 evropsk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti; na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b americk\u00e1 p\u0159edstava, \u017ee NATO bude \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed organisac\u00ed transatlantick\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ce a ZEU bude evropsk\u00fdm region\u00e1ln\u00edm pil\u00ed\u0159em. Stabilita a podpora demokracie bude vyza\u0159ovat z t\u00e9to instituce i do St\u0159edn\u00ed Evropy.<\/p>\n

U\u017e jsme si zvykli ve st\u0159edn\u00ed Evrop\u011b, \u017ee se mnoho v\u011bc\u00ed m\u011bn\u00ed. Hodn\u011b toho nev\u00edme. Z\u00e1pad i V\u00fdchod tak\u00e9 nev\u00ed. Je dobr\u00e9 v\u011bd\u011bt, \u017ee nev\u00edme. Ale k na\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnosti pat\u0159\u00ed akceptovat sv\u011bt jak\u00fd je a pokusit se p\u0159ijmout i jistou dynamiku, v n\u00ed\u017e budeme mo\u017en\u00e1 muset je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bkolik rok\u016f \u017e\u00edt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ji\u0159\u00ed Payne\u00a03. 6. 1996 St\u0159edoevropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b, nach\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed se tradi\u010dn\u011b ve zna\u010dn\u011b politicky neklidn\u00e9m prost\u0159ed\u00ed, hledaj\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed sv\u00fdch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f, \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u010dlenstv\u00ed v n\u011bkter\u00fdch organisac\u00edch. Hovo\u0159\u00ed se o nov\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed… \u010c\u00edst v\u00edce ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,3,9],"tags":[6,12,11,5],"class_list":["post-542","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-obrana","category-clanky","category-zahrpol","tag-dompol","tag-nato","tag-obrana","tag-zahrpol"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/542","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=542"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/542\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":543,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/542\/revisions\/543"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=542"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=542"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=542"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}