{"id":407,"date":"2015-05-01T07:52:51","date_gmt":"2015-05-01T06:52:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/?p=407"},"modified":"2015-06-01T11:40:24","modified_gmt":"2015-06-01T10:40:24","slug":"hrozi-nam-zasah-balistickou-raketou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/hrozi-nam-zasah-balistickou-raketou\/","title":{"rendered":"Hroz\u00ed n\u00e1m z\u00e1sah balistickou raketou?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00davod<\/span><\/h4>\n

Proliferace jadern\u00fdch, biologick\u00fdch a chemick\u00fdch zbran\u00ed (NBC – nuclear, ballistic, chemical weapons) a rostouc\u00ed schopnosti (dolet, p\u0159esnost navigace) raketov\u00fdch nosi\u010d\u016f3<\/sup><\/a><\/span> <\/a>– balistick\u00fdch st\u0159el a \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch st\u0159el s plochou dr\u00e1hou letu – vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed nov\u00e1 rizika pro \u010dlensk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty NATO a m\u011bn\u00ed do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed cel\u00e9ho sv\u011bta. Sv\u011btov\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed se st\u00e1v\u00e1 st\u00e1le m\u00e9n\u011b p\u0159edpov\u011bditeln\u00e9 (i\u00a0zpravodajsk\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky) a tedy i kontrolovateln\u00e9. Prost\u0159edky hromadn\u00e9ho ni\u010den\u00ed jsou st\u00e1le v\u00edce dostupn\u00e9 nejen pro st\u00e1ty, ale i pro nest\u00e1tn\u00ed subjekty1<\/sup><\/a><\/a>. Zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b z\u0159eteln\u00fdm d\u016fsledkem proliferace je rostouc\u00ed nebezpe\u010d\u00ed n\u00e1hodn\u00e9ho, neopr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u00e9ho nebo z\u00e1m\u011brn\u00e9ho \u00fatoku balistickou raketou st\u0159edn\u00edho a dalek\u00e9ho doletu.
\nN\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed evrop\u0161t\u00ed politikov\u00e9 i na\u0161i publicist\u00e9 se pokou\u0161ej\u00ed rizika napaden\u00ed balistickou st\u0159elou zpochyb\u0148ovat nebo bagatelizovat. Objevuj\u00ed se tvrzen\u00ed o „neexistuj\u00edc\u00edm nebezpe\u010d\u00ed“, nebo se uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee „rizika jsou zanedbateln\u00e1“.
\nTito auto\u0159i v\u0161ak nikde neuv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed, o\u010d sv\u00e1 tvrzen\u00ed op\u00edraj\u00ed a z jak\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f bagatelizace rizik vypl\u00fdv\u00e1. U n\u00e1s prozat\u00edm, pokud v\u00edm, nebyly argumenty detailn\u011b uvedeny a v z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti je proveden jejich souhrn. \u00davahy o pot\u0159eb\u011b vybudov\u00e1n\u00ed NMD vych\u00e1zej\u00ed z relevantn\u00edch \u00fadaj\u016f (viz d\u00e1le), podle nich\u017e kritick\u00fd okam\u017eik ohro\u017een\u00ed (v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9ho vyhrocen\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed situace) m\u016f\u017ee nastat po roce 2005 2<\/sup><\/a>. <\/a>
\n<\/span>Tento text shrnuje informace z r\u016fzn\u00fdch otev\u0159en\u00fdch zdroj\u016f a pokou\u0161\u00ed se o popis probl\u00e9mu a mo\u017enosti jeho \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. Pot\u0159ebujeme nal\u00e9zt spr\u00e1vn\u00fd odhad mo\u017en\u00fdch a odhad pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdch rizik a vyvodit z nich p\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 politick\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

_________________________________________________________________<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n


\n<\/span>\u00a0Jak\u00fd je postoj NATO?<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n

Strategick\u00fd koncept NATO schv\u00e1len\u00fd na summitu ve Washingtonu na ja\u0159e v roce 1999 uv\u00e1d\u00ed:
\n22. \u0160\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch, biologick\u00fdch a chemick\u00fdch zbran\u00ed a jejich nosi\u010d\u016f je p\u0159edm\u011btem v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9ho znepokojen\u00ed. P\u0159es v\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed pokroku v pos\u00edlen\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho re\u017eimu ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed, hlavn\u00ed v\u00fdzvy ohledn\u011b \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed. Aliance zjistila, \u017ee \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee existovat navzdory \u00fasil\u00ed o jeho prevenci a m\u016f\u017ee vytv\u00e1\u0159et p\u0159\u00edmou vojenskou hrozbu obyvatel\u016fm aliance, jej\u00edmu \u00fazem\u00ed a sil\u00e1m. <\/i><\/span>N\u011bkter\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch na okraji NATO a v dal\u0161\u00edch regionech, prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed, osvojily si, nebo se pokou\u0161ej\u00ed si osvojit jadern\u00e9, biologick\u00e9 a chemick\u00e9 zbran\u011b a jejich nosi\u010de. Komodity a technologie, kter\u00e9 by mohly b\u00fdt vyu\u017eity k v\u00fdrob\u011b t\u011bchto zbran\u00ed hromadn\u00e9ho ni\u010den\u00ed a jejich nosi\u010d\u016f se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00edce dostupn\u00e9, proto\u017ee odhalov\u00e1n\u00ed a prevence ileg\u00e1ln\u00edho obchodu s t\u011bmito materi\u00e1ly a know-how je nad\u00e1le obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e1. Neofici\u00e1ln\u00ed struktury prokazuj\u00ed potenci\u00e1l vyr\u00e1b\u011bt a pou\u017e\u00edvat n\u011bkter\u00e9 z t\u011bchto zbran\u00ed.
\n<\/b><\/span>23. Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed technologie, je\u017e m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt vyu\u017eita k v\u00fdrob\u011b zbran\u00ed, m\u016f\u017ee vy\u00fastit ve vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enosti sofistikovan\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch kapacit, umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edch v\u00fdvoj vysoce kvalitn\u00edch \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch a obrann\u00fdch protileteck\u00fdch, pozemn\u00edch a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f, nav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fdch st\u0159el a dal\u0161\u00edch vysp\u011bl\u00fdch zbran\u00ed<\/b>.<\/span> Krom\u011b toho ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed a neofici\u00e1ln\u00ed struktury se mohou pokusit zneu\u017e\u00edt vzr\u016fstaj\u00edc\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry aliance v informa\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9my prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm informa\u010dn\u00edch operac\u00ed ur\u010den\u00fdch k naru\u0161en\u00ed t\u011bchto syst\u00e9m\u016f. Mohou se pokusit vyu\u017e\u00edt strategie tohoto druhu k p\u0159ekon\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159evahy NATO v tradi\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdzbroji.
\n53. To jmenovit\u011b znamen\u00e1:
\n– \u017ee obrann\u00e1 pozice aliance mus\u00ed b\u00fdt schopna pat\u0159i\u010dn\u011b a \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b \u010delit rizik\u016fm spojen\u00fdm s \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00edm zbran\u00ed NBC a s jejich nosi\u010di<\/b><\/span>, je\u017e rovn\u011b\u017e p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed hrozbu pro obyvatelstvo, \u00fazem\u00ed a s\u00edly spojenc\u016f. Je zapot\u0159eb\u00ed vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00e1 sm\u011bs sil, schopnost\u00ed reakce a pos\u00edlen\u00fdch obrann\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed;
\n56. Postoj aliance v oblasti obrany v\u016f\u010di nebezpe\u010d\u00ed a mo\u017en\u00fdm hrozb\u00e1m \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch, biologick\u00fdch a chemick\u00fdch (NBC) zbran\u00ed a jejich nosi\u010d\u016f se mus\u00ed d\u00e1l zlep\u0161it, v\u010detn\u011b pr\u00e1ce na raketov\u00e9 obran\u011b.<\/b><\/span> Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee s\u00edly NATO mohou b\u00fdt vyzv\u00e1ny k operac\u00edm mimo hranice NATO, schopnost \u010delit nebezpe\u010d\u00ed \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed se mus\u00ed vyzna\u010dovat pru\u017enost\u00ed, mobilitou, rychlou rozm\u00edstitelnost\u00ed a odolnost\u00ed. Politick\u00e1 linie v\u00fduky, pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed, v\u00fdcviku a cvi\u010den\u00ed mus\u00ed rovn\u011b\u017e p\u0159ipravit alianci k odstra\u0161en\u00ed a k obran\u011b proti pou\u017eit\u00ed zbran\u00ed NBC. C\u00edlem je postupovat tak, aby se zmen\u0161ila opera\u010dn\u00ed zranitelnost vojensk\u00fdch sil NATO p\u0159i udr\u017een\u00ed jejich pru\u017enosti a \u00fa\u010dinnosti, a to navzdory p\u0159\u00edtomnosti, hrozb\u011b \u010di pou\u017eit\u00ed NBC zbran\u00ed.<\/span><\/i><\/span><\/p>\n

_________________________________________________________________<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n


\n<\/span>Jak\u00fd je postoj \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky?<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n

Vojensk\u00e1 strategie \u010desk\u00e9 republiky v prv\u00e9 kapitole (V\u00fdchodiska) rekapituluje bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed rizika, mj.:
\n5. N\u00e1siln\u00e9 akce ciz\u00edch subjekt\u016f (st\u00e1tn\u00ed i nest\u00e1tn\u00ed) proti osob\u00e1m zdr\u017euj\u00edc\u00edm se na \u00fazem\u00ed \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky, majetku a jin\u00fdm chr\u00e1n\u011bn\u00fdm z\u00e1jm\u016fm st\u00e1tu v mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch m\u00edrov\u00fdch nebo humanit\u00e1rn\u00edch mis\u00edch <\/i><\/span>(\u00fadery \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdmi st\u0159elami st\u0159edn\u00edho a dalek\u00e9ho dosahu<\/b><\/span>, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b \u00fadery skupiny nebo jednotliv\u00e9ho letounu proti d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm objekt\u016fm na teritoriu \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky napaden\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00edch a spr\u00e1vn\u00edch instituc\u00ed a za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed st\u00e1tu, zajet\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed skupiny ob\u010dan\u016f jako rukojm\u00ed.)
\n<\/span><\/i>Obdobn\u011b hovo\u0159\u00ed i koncepce zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

V bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed strategii \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky jsme se p\u0159ihl\u00e1sili (v kapitole 2. Obrann\u00e1 politika) k dokumentu NATO t\u011bmito slovy:
\nB. <\/i><\/span>\u010cesk\u00e1 republika se ztoto\u017e\u0148uje s roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00fdm pojet\u00edm bezpe\u010dnosti formulovan\u00fdm ve Strategick\u00e9 koncepci NATO<\/b><\/span> a je p\u0159ipravena k pln\u011bn\u00ed z\u00e1vazk\u016f, kter\u00e9 vypl\u00fdvaj\u00ed ze Severoatlantick\u00e9 smlouvy.<\/span><\/i><\/span><\/p>\n


\n<\/i><\/span>_________________________________________________________________<\/span><\/b>
\n<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n

Jak\u00e9 jsou mo\u017enosti zabr\u00e1nit \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdch technologi\u00ed a zbran\u00ed?<\/span><\/h4>\n

Jin\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed?<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159edn\u011b mus\u00ed NATO br\u00e1nit proliferaci posilov\u00e1n\u00edm tradi\u010dn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed – omezov\u00e1n\u00ed zbrojen\u00ed, omezov\u00e1n\u00ed exportu, vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk – a z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u011brohodnou schopnost\u00ed odvety odradit od pou\u017eit\u00ed a od dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdvoje p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 \u0161i\u0159itele citliv\u00fdch technologi\u00ed a nosi\u010d\u016f.
\nKrom\u011b toho mus\u00ed NATO v r\u00e1mci opat\u0159en\u00ed proti proliferaci a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9mu napaden\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u011bt \u0159adu opat\u0159en\u00ed ve sv\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil\u00e1ch. Znamen\u00e1 to zm\u011bny v doktr\u00edn\u00e1ch, ve v\u00fdcviku a ve velen\u00ed. Znamen\u00e1 to tak\u00e9 opat\u0159it si strategick\u00e9 a taktick\u00e9 prost\u0159edky na obranu pro p\u0159\u00edpad, \u017ee se proliferaci nepoda\u0159\u00ed zabr\u00e1nit.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0Smluvn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed<\/span><\/p>\n

NPT – Smlouva o ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed
\nCTBT (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty) – Smlouva o z\u00e1kazu jadern\u00fdch zkou\u0161ek 1996
\nWassenaar Agreement – Smlouva o z\u00e1kazu v\u00fdvozu n\u011bkter\u00fdch technologi\u00ed a materi\u00e1l\u016f – (nahrazuje COCOM)
\nMTCR (Missile Technology Control Regime) – z\u00e1kaz \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed raket s doletem nad 300 km.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco v\u011bt\u0161ina st\u00e1t\u016f tento smluvn\u00ed syst\u00e9m podporuje a respektuje smluvn\u00ed ujedn\u00e1n\u00ed, zv\u011bt\u0161uje se po\u010det st\u00e1t\u016f, kter\u00e9 tento smluvn\u00ed syst\u00e9m odm\u00edtaj\u00ed nebo smlouvy obch\u00e1zej\u00ed (Severn\u00ed Korea, Ir\u00e1k, Ir\u00e1n – sice form\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159istoupily na NPT, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 n\u011bkter\u00e9 informace nasv\u011bd\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee aktivn\u011b usiluj\u00ed o z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed a nosi\u010d\u016f).
\nDokonce lze konstatovat, \u017ee \u00fam\u011brn\u011b pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm jedn\u00e1n\u00edm o redukci jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed mezi USA a Ruskem roste po\u010det st\u00e1t\u016f usiluj\u00edc\u00edch o z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed NBC zbran\u00ed.<\/p>\n

_________________________________________________________________<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak\u00e9 jsou technick\u00e9 mo\u017enosti st\u00e1t\u016f, kter\u00e9 mohou p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b n\u011bkoho ohrozit?<\/span><\/h4>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed situace na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m V\u00fdchod\u011b<\/span><\/p>\n

Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod redukoval po skon\u010den\u00ed studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky v\u00fddaje na zbrojen\u00ed:<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
\n

1985<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1995<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

93 miliard USD<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

48 miliard USD<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod je v\u0161ak natolik vyzbrojen, \u017ee omezen\u00ed v\u00fddaj\u016f na zbrojen\u00ed se neprojevuje na bojov\u00fdch kapacit\u00e1ch. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b se na bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b investuje 8 procent GNP na zbrojen\u00ed (zat\u00edmco evropsk\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br je 2,8%). Takov\u00e1 situace znamen\u00e1 v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 riziko jak pro bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00ed st\u00e1ty navz\u00e1jem, tak pro zem\u011b mimo tento region, zejm\u00e9na roste riziko evropsk\u00e9 zranitelnosti ze strany bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f a mo\u017enost ohro\u017een\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161echny bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy vykazuj\u00ed jist\u00fd stupe\u0148 represivn\u00edch tendenc\u00ed. N\u011bkter\u00e9 maj\u00ed sklon k podpo\u0159e terorismu. Dal\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1ty trp\u00ed vnit\u0159n\u00edmi konflikty, kter\u00e9 mohou vy\u00fastit do krize. Nez\u0159\u00eddka hroz\u00ed teroristick\u00e9 \u00fatoky proti ob\u010dan\u016fm t\u0159et\u00edch zem\u00ed \u017eij\u00edc\u00edch\/pob\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch na \u00fazem\u00ed bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f nebo teroristick\u00e9 \u00fatoky mimo \u00fazem\u00ed (v t\u0159et\u00edch st\u00e1tech).<\/span><\/p>\n

NBC zbran\u011b na bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Greater Middle East Proliferation Profile
\n<\/span>\"\"
\nPodle Institute for National Strategic Studies, Strategic Assesment 1995<\/span><\/p>\n

Co mohou ohrozit?<\/span><\/p>\n