{"id":389,"date":"2015-05-01T06:37:52","date_gmt":"2015-05-01T05:37:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/?p=389"},"modified":"2015-06-01T11:41:48","modified_gmt":"2015-06-01T10:41:48","slug":"cesi-opet-na-krizovatce-dejin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/cesi-opet-na-krizovatce-dejin\/","title":{"rendered":"\u010ce\u0161i op\u011bt na k\u0159i\u017eovatce d\u011bjin"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ji\u0159\u00ed Payne <\/strong>11.8.2006<\/span><\/p>\n

Odpor k protiraketov\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u011b je veden emocemi. Obrana v\u0161ak nen\u00ed z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed emoc\u00ed, ale matematick\u00fdch kalkulac\u00ed. Hroz\u00ed n\u00e1m napaden\u00ed balistickou st\u0159elou? Strategick\u00fd koncept NATO k tomu \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: \u201e\u0160\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch, biologick\u00fdch a chemick\u00fdch zbran\u00ed a jejich nosi\u010d\u016f je p\u0159edm\u011btem v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9ho znepokojen\u00ed. \u2026 Aliance zjistila, \u017ee \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee existovat navzdory \u00fasil\u00ed o jeho prevenci a m\u016f\u017ee vytv\u00e1\u0159et p\u0159\u00edmou vojenskou hrozbu obyvatel\u016fm aliance, jej\u00edmu \u00fazem\u00ed a sil\u00e1m.\u201c Na\u0161e rizika jsou v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e byly v dob\u011b studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Tehdy byly v\u0161echny technologie pod kontrolou. Nyn\u00ed jsou dostupn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Kdejak\u00fd stoln\u00ed PC p\u0159evy\u0161uje kapacitou a rychlost\u00ed tehdej\u0161\u00ed nejtajn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 po\u010d\u00edta\u010de. Senzory a extern\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed k n\u011bmu um\u00ed p\u0159ipojit dosp\u00edvaj\u00edc\u00ed d\u00edt\u011b. Nav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159es GPS po\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed turist\u00e9 na v\u00fdletech. Raketov\u00e9 nosi\u010de se vyr\u00e1b\u011bj\u00ed s\u00e9riov\u011b. Tajn\u00e9 slu\u017eby zaznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed ro\u010dn\u011b stovky pokus\u016f o n\u00e1kup komponent nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdch technologi\u00ed. Nezodpov\u011bdn\u00e9 st\u00e1ty prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed technologie nezodpov\u011bdn\u00fdm teroristick\u00fdm skupin\u00e1m. Kontrola \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed zneu\u017eiteln\u00fdch technologi\u00ed je ne\u00fa\u010dinn\u00e1. \u00datok balistickou st\u0159elou z druh\u00e9 polokoule bude zanedlouho na po\u0159adu dne.<\/p>\n

M\u00e1me dv\u011b mo\u017enosti: \u0158ekneme si, \u017ee riziko pat\u0159\u00ed k \u017eivotu, \u017ee je to takov\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 ruleta. A\u017e raketa p\u0159ilet\u00ed, budeme m\u00edt n\u011bkolik minut, abychom se rozlou\u010dili navz\u00e1jem, ne\u017e se rozlou\u010d\u00edme se \u017eivotem. K tomu pak zru\u0161me spot\u0159ebn\u00ed da\u0148 na alkohol, v opojen\u00ed se n\u00e1m budou rizika l\u00e9pe sn\u00e1\u0161et. Nebo se pokus\u00edme rizika zmen\u0161it. Jen\u017ee vyvinout syst\u00e9m obrany je z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed desetilet\u00ed, mus\u00edme za\u010d\u00edt s p\u0159edstihem.<\/p>\n

Protiraketov\u00e1 obrana je kombinac\u00ed zn\u00e1m\u00fdch technologi\u00ed. Nepot\u0159ebuje v\u011bdeck\u00fd v\u00fdzkum, sta\u010d\u00ed napsat software pro synchronizaci v\u0161ech za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Jen\u017ee EU zaost\u00e1v\u00e1 ve v\u0161ech t\u011bchto technologi\u00edch nejen za Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty, ale i za Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou. Nem\u00e1me syst\u00e9m infra\u010derven\u00fdch satelit\u016f kolem cel\u00e9 zem\u011bkoule. Projekt Galileo nebude m\u00edt infrasenzory. Nem\u00e1me na v\u0161ech kontinentech pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 t\u0159\u00eddimenzion\u00e1ln\u00ed radary pro monitorov\u00e1n\u00ed balistick\u00e9 dr\u00e1hy. Nevyr\u00e1b\u00edme s\u00e9riov\u011b raketov\u00e9 nosi\u010de. Nem\u00e1me zku\u0161enosti s p\u0159esn\u00fdm nav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00edm obrann\u00e9 st\u0159ely. Nem\u00e1me znalosti v nanotechnologi\u00edch. Z vlastn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f \u010cesk\u00e1 republika nebude schopna vy\u0159e\u0161it toto riziko nikdy. Kdyby se EU nyn\u00ed rozhodla, zru\u0161ila zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 dotace a investovala v\u0161e do obrany, m\u016f\u017eeme o\u010dek\u00e1vat prvn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky za dv\u011b \u010di t\u0159i desetilet\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Jedinou mo\u017enost\u00ed je spolupr\u00e1ce s USA. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed evrop\u0161t\u00ed spojenci se chovaj\u00ed tak antiamericky a izolacionisticky, \u017ee se bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed garance v r\u00e1mci roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e9 Aliance oslabuj\u00ed. Nav\u00edc technologick\u00e1 propast mezi Evropou a Amerikou je tak velk\u00e1, \u017ee jsou spole\u010dn\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 operace dost obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9. N\u011bkter\u00e9 st\u00e1ty odm\u00edtaj\u00ed americkou ochranu. USA nemohou vnutit protibalistick\u00fd de\u0161tn\u00edk automaticky v\u0161em \u010dlen\u016fm NATO, mohou ji za sjednan\u00fdch podm\u00ednek za n\u011bjakou protihodnotu poskytnout jen tomu, kdo o ni stoj\u00ed. Spolupracuj\u00ed s Ruskem dokonce intenzivn\u011bji, ne\u017e s EU. Ji\u017e l\u00e9ta mimo r\u00e1mec EU na protiraketov\u00e9 obran\u011b spolupracuj\u00ed s USA bilater\u00e1ln\u011b jednotliv\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b.<\/p>\n

\u010cesk\u00e1 republika m\u00e1 historickou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost: za nevelk\u00fd pozemek ve st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edm vojensk\u00e9m prostoru m\u016f\u017ee z\u00edskat bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed dohodu o ochran\u011b sv\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed. Co t\u00edm z\u00edsk\u00e1, co riskuje?<\/p>\n

Odp\u016frci radarov\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny poukazuj\u00ed na to, \u017ee \u00fa\u010dinnost nen\u00ed stoprocentn\u00ed. U nov\u00e9ho projektu to nen\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u00e1 z\u00e1vada. I kdyby byla \u00fa\u010dinnost osmdes\u00e1tiprocentn\u00ed, byl by to pro \u010cR fantastick\u00fd p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek k bezpe\u010dnosti. Sami bychom takov\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti nikdy nedos\u00e1hli. A v\u00edme, \u017ee nov\u00e9 technologie sice na po\u010d\u00e1tku nefunguj\u00ed dokonale, ale po prvn\u00edch letech dosahuj\u00ed skv\u011bl\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinnosti. To lze pr\u00e1vem o\u010dek\u00e1vat.<\/p>\n

Odp\u016frci tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee riziko teroristick\u00e9ho \u00fatoku by vzrostlo pr\u00e1v\u011b kv\u016fli mo\u017enosti \u00fatoku na radarovou z\u00e1kladnu. To ned\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl: podobn\u00fdch radarov\u00fdch a protiraketov\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed je na zem\u011bkouli n\u011bkolik des\u00edtek a v dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b jich mohou b\u00fdt stovky. Existuje-li tedy takov\u00e9 nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed rizika, pak je nutn\u00e9 jej d\u011blit po\u010dtem podobn\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. P\u0159\u00ednos pro na\u0161\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost je o n\u011bkolik \u0159\u00e1d\u016f v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fd vzr\u016fst rizika. Jakou \u0161kodu by \u00fatok na radarovou z\u00e1kladnu mohl zp\u016fsobit? Raketov\u00e9 motory jsou poh\u00e1n\u011bny ho\u0159lavinou. Kdyby se terorist\u016fm povedlo dostat se do vojensk\u00e9ho prostoru, mohli by zp\u016fsobit nanejv\u00fd\u0161 explozi paliva, co\u017e by byl v\u00fdbuch srovnateln\u00fd s exploz\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed benz\u00ednov\u00e9 pumpy. V\u00edme ale, \u017ee teroristick\u00e9 \u00fatoky jsou sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1ny zejm\u00e9na proti civiln\u00edmu obyvatelstvu, kter\u00e9 na z\u00e1kladn\u011b v\u016fbec nebude, tak\u017ee \u00fatok na tankovac\u00ed stanici je mnohem pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Boj\u00ed-li se n\u011bkdo v\u00fdbuchu paliva, mus\u00ed nap\u0159ed dos\u00e1hnout zru\u0161en\u00ed v\u0161ech benzinov\u00fdch \u010derpadel, kter\u00e1 nemaj\u00ed vojenskou ostrahu, zat\u00edmco radarov\u00e1 stanice bude st\u0159e\u017eena. Kdyby dokonce byl u n\u00e1s jenom radar, nehrozil by ani v\u00fdbuch. S jistou d\u00e1vkou ironie u n\u00e1s najdeme daleko p\u0159ita\u017eliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed c\u00edle: t\u0159eba pro chemickou hlavici je skv\u011bl\u00fdm c\u00edlem na\u0161e protichemick\u00e1 jednotka. Ni\u010div\u00fd dopad na civiln\u00ed obyvatelstvo by byl mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Doporu\u010den\u00ed spol\u00e9hat na alian\u010dn\u00ed pomoc je komick\u00e9. Raketa s chemickou nebo biologickou hlavic\u00ed zas\u00e1hne na\u0161e \u00fazem\u00ed osm minut po odp\u00e1len\u00ed. Za tu dobu nesta\u010d\u00ed n\u00e1\u0161 velvyslanec v NATO spojence ani po\u017e\u00e1dat o pomoc, kdyby o \u00fatoku v\u011bd\u011bl. Nem\u00e1me toti\u017e \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd radar, kter\u00fd by jej zjistil. Proto jsou balistick\u00e9 st\u0159ely tak atraktivn\u00ed: c\u00edlov\u00e1 zem\u011b nem\u00e1 tu\u0161en\u00ed, \u017ee se \u00fatok na opa\u010dn\u00e9 stran\u011b zem\u011bkoule p\u0159ipravuje. Na\u0161e dokonale modernizovan\u00e9 tanky, letka pronajat\u00fdch st\u00edha\u010dek, nov\u00e9 obrn\u011bn\u00e9 transport\u00e9ry, skv\u011bl\u00e1 protichemick\u00e1 jednotka a mnoho voj\u00e1k\u016f v m\u00edrov\u00fdch mis\u00edch jsou n\u00e1m k ni\u010demu. P\u0159itom \u00fato\u010dn\u00edk zaplat\u00ed za raketu zlomek toho, co n\u00e1s to v\u0161echno st\u00e1lo.<\/p>\n

Kdybychom m\u011bli odm\u00edtnout historickou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost vy\u0159e\u0161it nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed riziko, stejn\u011b jako jsme kdysi odm\u00edtli Mashall\u016fv pl\u00e1n, mus\u00ed odp\u016frci radar\u016f \u0159\u00edci odkud vezmou stovky miliard na n\u011bjak\u00e9 alternativn\u00ed prost\u0159edky pro obdobn\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed rizika. Ruskou ruletu nelze pova\u017eovat za rovnocenn\u00fd n\u00e1vrh. Tentokr\u00e1t ji nehraj\u00ed ani Rusov\u00e9!<\/p>\n

(Publikov\u00e1no 18.8.2006 v Pr\u00e1vu)<\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zka: Bude slou\u017eit z\u00e1kladna k obran\u011b Evropy nebo USA? <\/strong><\/p>\n

Radar bude sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed celosv\u011btov\u00e9 monitorovac\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b a informacemi o dr\u00e1ze letu bude p\u0159isp\u00edvat k up\u0159esn\u011bn\u00ed dr\u00e1hy letu ka\u017ed\u00e9 rakety dalek\u00e9ho a do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry i st\u0159edn\u00edho doletu typu zem\u011b-zem\u011b kdykoli polet\u00ed nad na\u0161\u00ed polokoul\u00ed. Proti raket\u00e1m kr\u00e1tk\u00e9ho doletu se pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 jin\u00fd typ obrany, ty n\u00e1m ale p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nehroz\u00ed, musely by b\u00fdt odp\u00e1leny odn\u011bkud z evropsk\u00e9ho kontinentu a tady by se ileg\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edprava k odp\u00e1len\u00ed neutajila, od spojenc\u016f \u00fatok ne\u010dek\u00e1me.<\/p>\n

Pro lep\u0161\u00ed funk\u010dnost syst\u00e9mu by bylo v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 m\u00edt obrann\u00e9 rakety um\u00edst\u011bny o n\u011bkolik set kilometr\u016f jinde, ne\u017e radar, ale finan\u010dn\u011b to je n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, proto\u017ee mus\u00ed b\u00fdt postaveny dv\u011b samostatn\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny. Ka\u017ed\u00fd radar a ka\u017ed\u00e1 obrann\u00e1 raketa recipro\u010dn\u011b p\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1 do bezpe\u010dnosti v\u0161ech, kdo jsou do syst\u00e9mu zapojeni. Schematick\u00e9 zn\u00e1zorn\u011bn\u00ed sou\u010dinnosti radar\u016f a obrann\u00fdch raket najdete na http:\/\/www.payne.cz\/nmd\/Jakfunguje.htm<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zka: Nebudou na\u0161e \u00fazem\u00ed ohro\u017eovat zbytky zni\u010den\u00e9 \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 rakety? <\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00dato\u010dn\u00e1 raketa bude ni\u010dena ve vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch vrstv\u00e1ch atmosf\u00e9ry, tak\u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina sho\u0159\u00ed p\u0159i p\u00e1du do atmosf\u00e9ry. Pokud by se m\u011blo jednat o raketu \u00fato\u010d\u00edc\u00ed na Evropu, musela by b\u00fdt zni\u010dena o tis\u00edc kilometr\u016f p\u0159edem, tedy nejsp\u00ed\u0161 n\u011bkde nad mo\u0159em.<\/p>\n

Na\u0161e \u00fazem\u00ed by mohly ohrozit zbytky sest\u0159elen\u00e9 rakety let\u00edc\u00ed z Atlantiku na Moskvu, ale nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch pades\u00e1t let terorist\u00e9 ur\u010dit\u011b neubudou m\u00edt raketovou lo\u010f v Atlantiku a nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se tam s vojenskou lod\u00ed ani s ponorkou neodv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed. Krom\u011b toho v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b raketu sest\u0159el\u00ed nad na\u0161\u00edm \u00fazem\u00edm rusk\u00fd obrann\u00fd syst\u00e9m, ne americk\u00fd.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ji\u0159\u00ed Payne 11.8.2006 Odpor k protiraketov\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u011b je veden emocemi. Obrana v\u0161ak nen\u00ed z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed emoc\u00ed, ale matematick\u00fdch kalkulac\u00ed. Hroz\u00ed n\u00e1m napaden\u00ed balistickou st\u0159elou? Strategick\u00fd koncept NATO k tomu \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: \u201e\u0160\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed… \u010c\u00edst v\u00edce ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,3,9],"tags":[6,12,11,5],"class_list":["post-389","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-obrana","category-clanky","category-zahrpol","tag-dompol","tag-nato","tag-obrana","tag-zahrpol"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/389","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=389"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/389\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":703,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/389\/revisions\/703"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=389"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=389"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=389"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}