{"id":2340,"date":"2022-01-19T17:18:01","date_gmt":"2022-01-19T16:18:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/?p=2340"},"modified":"2022-01-19T19:12:52","modified_gmt":"2022-01-19T18:12:52","slug":"vpadnou-nebo-nevpadnou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/vpadnou-nebo-nevpadnou\/","title":{"rendered":"Vpadnou nebo nevpadnou"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

19.1.2022<\/span><\/p>\n

Vpadnou nebo nevpadnou? Tak se v roce 1968 ptala generace m\u00fdch rodi\u010d\u016f. Dnes se stejn\u011b pt\u00e1me my, pokud jde o Ukrajinu.<\/p>\n

Mnohokr\u00e1t jsme nyn\u00ed od na\u0161ich novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f a odborn\u00edk\u016f sly\u0161eli ut\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee to Putin nemysl\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u011b. Sami sebe uji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed, \u017ee na Ukrajinu docela ur\u010dit\u011b nevpadne, n\u011bco takov\u00e9ho si p\u0159ece nedovol\u00ed. <\/p>\n

Je to jen \u0161k\u00e1dlen\u00ed, nebo to mysl\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u011b? Kdyby se cht\u011bl dohodnout, ned\u011blal by to tak n\u00e1kladn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem. Ro\u010dn\u00ed pobyt vojsk na Ukrajinsk\u00fdch hranic\u00edch n\u011bco stoj\u00ed. <\/p>\n

K invazi se schylovalo u\u017e v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce na ja\u0159e a \u00fato\u010dn\u00e1 vojska se st\u00e1hla p\u00e1r dn\u00ed po zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00ed kauzy Vrb\u011btice (kdo trochu uva\u017euje, v\u00ed, \u017ee to nebyla n\u00e1hoda). Jestli se Putin k velmi n\u00e1kladn\u00e9mu \u00fatoku na Ukrajinu vrac\u00ed, mus\u00ed za t\u00edm b\u00fdt promy\u0161len\u00fd z\u00e1m\u011br. Nen\u00ed to jen \u0161k\u00e1dlen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Zkusme si sepsat alespo\u0148 n\u011bkter\u00e9 d\u016fvody, pro\u010d na Ukrajinu vtrhne a pro\u010d to nebude odkl\u00e1dat.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Okupace Krymu jednozna\u010dn\u011b pos\u00edlila Putinovo postaven\u00ed nejen na dom\u00e1c\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u011b, ale i u v\u011bt\u0161iny z deseti milion\u016f Rus\u016f v exilu. Docela by se to hodilo znova. \u00dazemn\u00edm zisk\u016fm rusk\u00e1 populace tlesk\u00e1.<\/li>\n
  2. Mezi t\u011bmi deseti miliony Rus\u016f v zahrani\u010d\u00ed jsou \u010dasto ti nejchyt\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed. A ty Putin pot\u0159ebuje doma. U\u017e byla rozehr\u00e1na karta, \u017ee by v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b napaden\u00ed Ukrajiny m\u011bli b\u00fdt v\u0161ichni vyho\u0161t\u011bni z p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00fdch zem\u00ed. Putin douf\u00e1, \u017ee by se \u010d\u00e1st z nich vr\u00e1tila do Ruska. Budou toti\u017e m\u00edt ve sv\u011bt\u011b nekomfortn\u00ed postaven\u00ed. Putin mezi nimi m\u00e1 organizovan\u00fd dohled. Nebude obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 jejich postaven\u00ed poznamenat praktikami \u201ep\u00e1t\u00e9 kolony\u201c natolik, \u017ee jim nezbude nic jin\u00e9ho, ne\u017e n\u00e1vrat do Ruska.<\/li>\n
  3. Atlantick\u00e9 st\u00e1ty (rozum\u011bj severoatlantick\u00e9) jsou nyn\u00ed poznamen\u00e1ny a oslabeny virovou infekc\u00ed. Demokratick\u00e1 politika \u0159e\u0161\u00ed demonstrace proti vakcinaci, jsou t\u00edm destabilizovan\u00e9. St\u011b\u017e\u00ed lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee se v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti naskytne lep\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost.<\/li>\n
  4. Rusko investovalo v posledn\u00edch letech do nov\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 techniky a m\u00e1 v n\u011bkter\u00fdch oblastech nezanedbatelnou p\u0159evahu. Alian\u010dn\u00ed st\u00e1ty (v\u010detn\u011b \u010cR) investice do obrany hazardn\u011b podcenily. O nov\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch technologi\u00edch zat\u00edm alian\u010dn\u00ed st\u00e1ty ani nedok\u00e1zaly z\u00edskat spolehliv\u00e9 informace. Tato alian\u010dn\u00ed nejistota poskytuje Putinovi komparativn\u00ed v\u00fdhodu, ta ale za \u010das pomine.<\/li>\n
  5. Kaliningrad je narvan\u00fd zbrojn\u00edmi technologiemi, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed vojensky pod kontrolou celou Evropu. Aliance nem\u00e1 dostate\u010dnou kapacitu na smysluplnou obranu. Nem\u00e1 ani prost\u0159edky na smyslupln\u00e9 odstra\u0161en\u00ed. Je jist\u00e9, \u017ee nic nepodnikne. A B\u011blorusko poskytne v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u0159eby n\u00e1stupn\u00ed prostor pro vojensk\u00e9 operace v Pobalt\u00ed.<\/li>\n
  6. Atlantick\u00e9 st\u00e1ty usiluj\u00ed o sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed z\u00e1vislosti na energetick\u00fdch dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch z Ruska. Pokles popt\u00e1vky znamen\u00e1, \u017ee za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 perioda, kdy se bude rusk\u00e1 ekonomika dost\u00e1vat do st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f. Nap\u011bt\u00ed, kter\u00e9 po invazi vznikne, ale p\u0159inut\u00ed atlantick\u00e9 st\u00e1ty investovat do \u201ekhaki\u201c techniky, m\u00edsto do sv\u011btle zelen\u00fdch technologi\u00ed. Obdob\u00ed rusk\u00e9 prosperity se t\u00edm zna\u010dn\u011b prodlou\u017e\u00ed.<\/li>\n
  7. Dosavadn\u00ed \u201ekrymsk\u00e9\u201c sankce uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed obchodn\u00edch vztah\u016f po\u0161kod\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm atlantick\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, Rusko dok\u00e1\u017ee v\u00fdpadek nahradit s jin\u00fdmi dodavateli a p\u0159es jin\u00e9 prost\u0159edn\u00edky. Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed obchod toti\u017e dramaticky zmen\u0161il v\u00fdznam jak\u00fdchkoli obchodn\u00edch a hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch sankc\u00ed. A na person\u00e1ln\u00ed sankce se Putinovi kamar\u00e1di d\u00e1vno p\u0159ipravili.<\/li>\n
  8. Srozumitelnou z\u00e1minkou pro invazi je n\u011bmeck\u00e9 odkl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed provozu Nord-streamu 2. <\/li>\n
  9. Invaz\u00ed Rusko znovu z\u00edsk\u00e1 postaven\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho hr\u00e1\u010de. Nadiktuje sv\u011btu nov\u00fd politick\u00fd a hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d, kter\u00fd bude pro Rusy  v dob\u011b kon\u010d\u00edc\u00ed epochy globalizace v\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e sv\u011btov\u00fd voln\u00fd obchod. Rusko vynese karty p\u0159i nov\u00e9m studenov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9m d\u011blen\u00ed sv\u011bta. A ten, kdo vyn\u00e1\u0161\u00ed kartu, m\u00e1 v\u017edycky v\u00fdhodu. Je jist\u00e9, \u017ee USA nab\u00edzen\u00e9 podm\u00ednky nep\u0159ijmou. S ostatn\u00edmi st\u00e1ty je zbyte\u010dn\u00e9 se zdr\u017eovat: velk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty d\u011blaj\u00ed, co cht\u011bj\u00ed, mal\u00e9 st\u00e1ty d\u011blaj\u00ed, co mus\u00ed (z\u00e1kladn\u00ed pou\u010dka rusk\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky).<\/li>\n
  10. Invaze ukon\u010d\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost kampan\u011b zalo\u017een\u00e9 na kritice a na snaze m\u00e9di\u00ed a neziskov\u00e9ho sektoru podporovat demokratick\u00e9 s\u00edly (resp. jejich trosky) v Rusku. Rusko bude vystupovat jako zachr\u00e1nce \u201enorm\u00e1ln\u00edho sv\u011bta\u201c a bude svol\u00e1vat dal\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1ty na stranu spole\u010dn\u00e9ho organizovan\u00e9ho odporu proti dekadentn\u00edm atlantick\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm. A na tuto propagandu mu nasko\u010d\u00ed i mnoho Evropan\u016f a Ameri\u010dan\u016f. Svou mesi\u00e1\u0161skou roli u\u017e Putin zah\u00e1jil, systematicky tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee centralizovan\u00fd re\u017eim (inspirovan\u00fd mo\u017en\u00e1 \u010c\u00ednou) je siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e demokracie. A bude n\u00e1m je\u0161t\u011b tvrdit, \u017ee jsme si to v\u0161echno zp\u016fsobili sami svou ne\u00fastupnost\u00ed, kter\u00e1 Rusko ohro\u017euje. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    19.1.2022 Vpadnou nebo nevpadnou? Tak se v roce 1968 ptala generace m\u00fdch rodi\u010d\u016f. Dnes se stejn\u011b pt\u00e1me my, pokud jde o Ukrajinu. Mnohokr\u00e1t jsme nyn\u00ed od na\u0161ich novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f a odborn\u00edk\u016f sly\u0161eli… \u010c\u00edst v\u00edce ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2340","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-clanky"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2340","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2340"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2340\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2346,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2340\/revisions\/2346"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2340"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2340"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.payne.cz\/WP15\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2340"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}